Obama Disqualification and the Return of the Dream Ticket

Early returns on Obama’s damage control of the Pastor Wright/TUCC issue are not good:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105205/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Moves-Into-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx

Plus these polls taken prior to Obama’s “More Perfect Union” Speech indicate that the damage done was extensive.

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar08_1.pdf
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_031908.pdf

Obama is apparently losing the middle and lower class swing voters that he’s worked so hard to cultivate. If Obama can’t recover in this demographic, he will not only lose the general election … he will lose by a landslide.

Superdelegates and Obama supporters are holding their breath waiting for more post-“Perfect Union” polling data. Without a significant recovery, Obama will lose a string of primaries going into the general election. In North Carolina, where Obama was up 5-10%, there is now a virtual tie and trending for Hillary Clinton. The Clinton lead in PA has nearly doubled.

The nightmare scenario for the Democrats is that a mortally wounded Obama limps into the convention with a big lead in elected delegates. Superdelegates will be faced with a decision: Do we stick with Obama and risk a huge loss that not only loses the presidency, but potentially hurts lower level candidates as well? Or do we shift to Hillary Clinton and risk losing big because the Obama supporters stay home?

If the nightmare scenario comes to pass, there will be only one course of action that can save the Democrats … Obama has to drop out of the race and throw his support to Clinton. Most likely, Obama will have to be the VP candidate. I’ve previously written that Obama wouldn’t take this position, but this situation would pretty much require that Obama be a team player so that the Democrats could have a chance in November.

Why is the Pastor Wright Issue Such a Big Deal?

I’ve talked to many Obama supporters that seem bewildered that this is such a big deal. After all, how is this different than any of a number of other issues that were all over the news and then flamed out after a few days?

The difference is that the issue of spirituality is always incredibly sensitive in presidential politics. In 1960, candidate John F. Kennedy had to give a speech to assure the country that he wouldn’t be taking orders from the Pope because he was Catholic. In the 2008 primaries, Mitt Romney had to give a speech to reassure Republicans that his church of Latter Day Saints was not a cult religion and in fact that they worshipped Jesus Christ.

It is my belief that if Obama was just buddies with Pastor Wright and not a member of his congregation, he would easily survive this controversy. The thing that’s killing Obama is that swing voters are looking at his church and they are saying … “Sorry, that won’t work for us”.

So What Does All this Mean? What’s Going to Happen?

It’s hard to say what will happen as we are in uncharted waters. I can tell you that if Obama was a white candidate, he would be disqualified with no chance to come back. Obama is banking on white America giving him a pass on what they consider to be a “bad” church (at least in presidential terms) based on the sordid history of racial injustice in this country. The bottom line is that I’d rather be in Clinton’s position than Obama’s right now.

If the polls continue to go in a bad direction and if he loses this last series of primaries, Obama will be forced to drop out of the race. He can recover from this so long as he cuts ties with TUCC. He is too young to risk doing serious damage to his party and effectively ending his political career. Make no mistake about it, Obama understands how this might play out. And he still would have a very real chance of becoming president one day if he plays ball.

Of course another possibility is that the “Perfect Union” speech convinced voters that Obama is still the guy they like in spite of the fact that they don’t like his church. In that case, Obama is in great position to be the next president. Without a FL and MI re-vote, Obama has Clinton check-mated. With John McCain’s string of gaffes this week, he’s not looking like the guy that can pull off a miracle GOP win in the fall.

Conclusion

My take-away from all this is that in 2008 America is ready for an African-American President AND it’s ready for a Woman President. However, America may not be ready for a non-mainstream Christian candidate.