The Vice Presidential Short List

While we’re waiting for the Super Tuesday returns, let’s speculate on potential Vice Presidential candidates.

First of all, what makes a good Vice Presidential candidate? The first and most important criterion is that the ticket is strengthened in the swing states. The second criterion is that the choice excites the party’s base (usually by providing balance). The third criterion is that the candidate can hold his (or her) own on the stump and in debates.

Looking at the swing states, the “big 4” (i.e. the ones with the most electoral votes) are Florida (27), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), and Pennsylvania (21). In 2000 and 2004, Florida and Ohio went to the Republicans while Pennsylvania and Michigan went to the Democrats. The margins in these states were all less than 5%. Looking at the 2006 elections, Florida went mostly Republican while the other 3 went Democrat. Here are the Governors:

FLA Gov. Charles Crist (R)
OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D)
PN Gov. Edward Rendell (D)
MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) (foreign born so she can’t be president)

Next, I’ve listed the remainder of the battleground states with a significant number of electoral votes.

Other Battleground States (Electoral votes >5)
VA (2004 margin: 8.2% R, EV: 13) Gov. Tim Kaine (D)
MO (2004 margin 7.2% R, EV 11) Gov Matt Blunt (R)
MN (2004 margin 3.5% D, EV 10) Gov Tim Pawlenty (R)
WI (2004 margin .4% D, EV 10) Gov James Doyle, Jr. (D)
CO (2004 margin: 4.7% R, EV: 9) Gov. Bill Ritter (D)
IA (2004 margin .7% R, EV 7) Gov. Chet Culver (D)
OR (2004 margin 4.2% D, EV 7) Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D)

On the Democratic side, the guy that jumps out at me here is Tim Kaine from VA. He’s a Harvard Law guy, a Jesuit, and he gave the Democratic Response to the State of the Union in 2006. He’s been tabbed as a rising star in the party and his approval rating is 55%. Strickland and Rendell should also be considered (61% and 54% approval rating. respectively). Recently Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have all been going Democratic. But there’s a pretty good chance that Ohio and Pennsylvania go Democratic in 2008 without the Veep bump, while Virginia will be more difficult to win. I’d definitely lean towards Kaine. One problem though, Kaine has endorsed Obama so that may tip the scales toward one of the other two if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.


On the Republican side, Crist and Pawlenty are both 60%-ish approval rating in their state. The Republicans are more likely to take FL without a lot of help though, so I might lean towards Pawlenty.

Lastly, I don't think we'll see any "dream tickets" this time around. On the Dem side, I don't think Hillary would help Obama's ticket should he win. Older women are pretty reliable voters. If she wins, he could help her but I doubt he would. A better career choice would be to go be Governor of Illinois.

On the GOP side, none of the other candidates has the fiscal conservative credentials to help McCain.