(click chart to enlarge)
Like the Obama and Clinton campaigns, I've done my own spreadsheet predicting the outcome of the Democratic race. I've made the assumption that current voting coalitions hold up and I take into account latest polling where possible.
I'm showing the picture 2 different ways. First, I show the pledged delegates at various points in time. Then I include the superdelegates assuming they continue to accumulate proportionally (i.e. no major break for one side or the other). In both cases, the race is always close ... the margin is never more than 100. The maximum margin happens after PA and includes the superdelegates. At that point, Hillary is leading and the margin is almost entirely provided by the superdelegates.
If status quo continues, Hillary ends up within a hair of winning the nomination. However, Obama will have won the pledged delegates. This is not a happy scenario for the Dems. I'm guessing that at some point, the superdelegates will have to put their finger on the scale even moreso than it already is (currently favoring Hillary by about 90). The question is ... when? and for whom?
Of course there is another possibility. Clinton or Obama may at some point peel off enough voters from the other's coalition that they open up a wide gap in pledged delegates. Ultimately, this would be the best case scenario for the party. But there is no reason to think that's going to happen. The coalitions on both sides are rock solid. Both candidates will probably have plenty of money. And there will probably be no major mistakes.
So now we see the stakeholders posturing on whether the superdelegates should should commit to a candidate or whether they should stay on the sidelines. Clnton advocate Donna Brazil has gone so far as to threaten to quit the Democratic party if the superdelegates "decide the race". Of course her position ignores the fact that the current difference of 90 superdelegates in favor of Clinton might very well decide the race. In my prediction, that 90 delegate margin is 2x the pledged delegate margin. The Obama side is openly urging the superdelegates to commit. The fact is that he NEEDS them to commit or he will most probably lose.
In a previous post, I tried to interpret a statement by Howard Dean that seemed to be trying to pressure superdelegates into commitment. Since then, various other "nuetral" figures in the Democratic party have suggested that the superdelegates wait "for a few more weeks" ... presumably they are hoping that someone will control of this race ... or possibly they don't want the superdelegates to pick sides at an Obama high point.
How will all this unfold? My crystal ball is very cloudy at the moment ... I'm guessing that after the March 4th primaries in Ohio and Texas the end-game should be pretty apparent to everyone. Either the superdelegates break for Obama and he wins, or status quo and Hillary wins. I can't tell which way this will go at the moment, but I can predict that the superdelegate gap on April 22 (the day of the PA primary) will predict the eventual winner. I say if the margin is closer to 90 than 0, Clinton will win. Otherwise, Obama will be the nominee.
Like the Obama and Clinton campaigns, I've done my own spreadsheet predicting the outcome of the Democratic race. I've made the assumption that current voting coalitions hold up and I take into account latest polling where possible.
I'm showing the picture 2 different ways. First, I show the pledged delegates at various points in time. Then I include the superdelegates assuming they continue to accumulate proportionally (i.e. no major break for one side or the other). In both cases, the race is always close ... the margin is never more than 100. The maximum margin happens after PA and includes the superdelegates. At that point, Hillary is leading and the margin is almost entirely provided by the superdelegates.
If status quo continues, Hillary ends up within a hair of winning the nomination. However, Obama will have won the pledged delegates. This is not a happy scenario for the Dems. I'm guessing that at some point, the superdelegates will have to put their finger on the scale even moreso than it already is (currently favoring Hillary by about 90). The question is ... when? and for whom?
Of course there is another possibility. Clinton or Obama may at some point peel off enough voters from the other's coalition that they open up a wide gap in pledged delegates. Ultimately, this would be the best case scenario for the party. But there is no reason to think that's going to happen. The coalitions on both sides are rock solid. Both candidates will probably have plenty of money. And there will probably be no major mistakes.
So now we see the stakeholders posturing on whether the superdelegates should should commit to a candidate or whether they should stay on the sidelines. Clnton advocate Donna Brazil has gone so far as to threaten to quit the Democratic party if the superdelegates "decide the race". Of course her position ignores the fact that the current difference of 90 superdelegates in favor of Clinton might very well decide the race. In my prediction, that 90 delegate margin is 2x the pledged delegate margin. The Obama side is openly urging the superdelegates to commit. The fact is that he NEEDS them to commit or he will most probably lose.
In a previous post, I tried to interpret a statement by Howard Dean that seemed to be trying to pressure superdelegates into commitment. Since then, various other "nuetral" figures in the Democratic party have suggested that the superdelegates wait "for a few more weeks" ... presumably they are hoping that someone will control of this race ... or possibly they don't want the superdelegates to pick sides at an Obama high point.
How will all this unfold? My crystal ball is very cloudy at the moment ... I'm guessing that after the March 4th primaries in Ohio and Texas the end-game should be pretty apparent to everyone. Either the superdelegates break for Obama and he wins, or status quo and Hillary wins. I can't tell which way this will go at the moment, but I can predict that the superdelegate gap on April 22 (the day of the PA primary) will predict the eventual winner. I say if the margin is closer to 90 than 0, Clinton will win. Otherwise, Obama will be the nominee.
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