Time to rev up the boat Kenny! BRRMM BRRRM BRRRM
Edwards:
Here's a pretty good analysis of Edwards voters based on exit polling.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/01/30/are-edwards-voters-obama-voters.aspx
So conventional wisdom is that this is a slight advantage for Hillary Clinton
My guess: Favors Barak Obama slightly. Thus far, Obama has proven to be better at tactically winning extra delegates by reaching winner-take-all thresholds in voting districts. Hence the reason why Obama was able to earn more delegates in Nevada while still losing by 5% in the popular vote.
My gut sense is that the Clinton organization is better in the the urban areas where she can get out her vote easier. But in the more rural areas ... where it's less cost effective to get people to the polls because their houses are farther apart ... Obama is better at targeting his demographic and hitting the threshold. Some extra votes can only help him there.
Guiliani:
First of all, I have to comment that Guiliani's campaign was a complete disaster. He was considered the front runner as recently as last November. His strategy only garnered one delegate.
So who does he help? Pretty clearly this helps McCain who seems to be well on his way to a nearly insurmountable lead after Super Tuesday.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--giuliani-nj0130jan30,0,7917408.story
Here's a pretty good analysis of Edwards voters based on exit polling.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/01/30/are-edwards-voters-obama-voters.aspx
So conventional wisdom is that this is a slight advantage for Hillary Clinton
My guess: Favors Barak Obama slightly. Thus far, Obama has proven to be better at tactically winning extra delegates by reaching winner-take-all thresholds in voting districts. Hence the reason why Obama was able to earn more delegates in Nevada while still losing by 5% in the popular vote.
My gut sense is that the Clinton organization is better in the the urban areas where she can get out her vote easier. But in the more rural areas ... where it's less cost effective to get people to the polls because their houses are farther apart ... Obama is better at targeting his demographic and hitting the threshold. Some extra votes can only help him there.
Guiliani:
First of all, I have to comment that Guiliani's campaign was a complete disaster. He was considered the front runner as recently as last November. His strategy only garnered one delegate.
So who does he help? Pretty clearly this helps McCain who seems to be well on his way to a nearly insurmountable lead after Super Tuesday.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--giuliani-nj0130jan30,0,7917408.story
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