Obama Republicans

Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama believes he can create a coalition which includes crossover Republicans. Is this really possible? Policy-wise there seems to be nothing in Obama’s vision that rank and file Republicans would support. Yet there is mounting evidence which suggests that Obama at least appeals to moderate Republicans. Could he possibly bring them into his coalition as Reagan brought in the “Reagan Democrats”?

Today, as I’m having my morning coffee and watching CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, I see this extraordinary interview with Sen. Obama and subsequent analysis by Jack Welch (former CEO of GE).

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=627018998
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=627019480

In the interview Welch more or less recommends a strategy to Sen. Obama to capture “lower level guys in big corporations working hard to compete and making $60-$70k/year”. After Obama signs-off the Squawk Box panel have the following exchange:

Joe Kernan: “… Jack, I don’t know but I assume you are a lifelong Republican …”
Jack Welch: “Democrat turned Republican.”
Joe Kernan: “Could you vote for this guy?”.
Jack Welch: “he has an appeal … if we could only get him to come around on issues like Capitol Gains Tax relief …”

Now, I don’t know Jack Welch’s political views. If he’s a “Democrat turned Republican” he could be a Reagan Democrat – a group that will most likely vote Democrat this November. But I find that highly unlikely. If I make the leap that Welch is a traditional moderate Republican, I find it fairly shocking that he could vote for Obama with just a minor tweak in policy. Is Welch an early indicator of a possible major Republican crossover?

Two years ago, this idea would be unthinkable. Though the Republican’s lost control of Congress, it appeared that the Reagan coalition still stood together. The Democrats had managed to reclaim some of their moderates and add some independents. But the mainstay of the coalition … the Social Conservatives, the traditional Republicans, and some of the moderate Democrats were still in the fold.

But as the 2008 campaign has evolved, it doesn’t appear that any of the Republican candidates has what it takes to hold the Reagan coalition together. Or at least, it doesn’t seem that any of the Republican candidates can bring the Reagan coalition out in force the way that George W. Bush and most of the previous Republican nominees have done. McCain and Huckabee are viewed as weak on immigration and tax cuts. Romney’s policies are acceptable to the Republican base, but he’s had to change positions on abortion, gun control, and tax cuts since he was governor of Massachusetts. Thus his credibility is problematic. Guiliani’s personal ethics are suspect. The bottom line is that traditional Republicans aren’t in love with any of these guys. But is that enough to make them switch? Conventional wisdom says no.

But compare the situation in 2008 to the situation in 1980 and there are many parallels. Moderate Republicans are unhappy with their leadership as moderate Democrats were in 1980. (In 2008 most of the dissatisfaction centers on excessive government spending … a core Republican value that’s been violated). Also, there is a foreign policy entanglement that leadership can’t seem to fix. Combine that with a foundering economy and you have a lot of frustration within the GOP today as there was in the Democratic Party in 1980.

Now along comes a presidential Candidate with an optimistic message promising to build a broad coalition in spite of the fact that his political position is relatively extreme. The candidate is a charismatic speaker … a “Great Communicator”. He seems to be unusually authentic … a guy that can speak to an audience that may be ready to listen to a whole new message …

Now for the icing on the cake … Sen. Obama invoked Reagan while campaigning in Nevada. From my perspective, there was a palpable feeling that Republican eyebrows were being raised all over the country. Can this guy really do what Reagan did? Can we recapture the patriotic magic? Are we open to ideas that are radically different from those that we’ve held for the last 25 years?

From where I sit, it seems that Republicans are ready to listen and seriously consider the idea. Is Obama the second coming of the “Great Communicator”? Can he close the deal? Does he need to tweak his policy to meet Republicans in the middle?

The mere possibility that there may be sea change in our government is making this election a lot more interesting. But let’s not put the cart before the horse. Obama has a big problem getting the nomination of his own party. I’ll give my take on that in my next post.